Election results won’t be easy to predict in 2020.
However, history says the incumbent has the advantage when the market rallies in the months leading up to the big day. Going back to 1928, incumbent presidents have won 90% of elections when the S&P 500 is positive in the previous three months, as reported by The Wall Street Journal.
Leading up to the elections, the S&P 500 has run from a March 2020 low of 2,191 to 3,426. The Dow Jones Industrials have run from 18,213 to 28,133, as the NASDAQ popped from 7,160 to a recent high of 11,531.
“If investors think the incumbent will win, they anticipate less policy change and are therefore less likely to shift their portfolios ahead of an election,” added Shawn Snyder, the head of investment strategy at Citi Personal Wealth Management.